By Political Desk
Independent research conducted by NewsDay reveals that when the Electoal Commissioner (EC), Jean Mensa, drops her gavel for friendly hostilities to begin in the nation’s 275 constituencies in Ghana in the oncoming 2020 elections, key constituencies whose MPs will be on their way home will include Tamale Central in the Northern Region, Bawku Central in the Upper East Region, and Kpone-Katamanso in the Greater Accra Region.
Another constituency, our studies further revealed, will be Chiana-Paga in Upper East.
That the New Patriotic Party(NPP) will comfortably pick the Tamale Central seat is clear, based not only the fact that the NDC bulldozed its way to pick the seat in 2016 with alleged swapping of ballot boxes, but also the emerging fact that the NDC as a party has lost steam, particularly, in Tamale Central.
Azorka Boys, JJ loyalty
Worse still for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) is the fizzling out of the influence of the Azorka Boys, with the political inactivity of founder Jerry John Rawlings in the NDC political permutations. Azorka Boys unquestioned loyalty to the former President makes it difficult for them to follow John Mahama loyalists and political foot soldiers or, for that matter, the NDC. Indeed in the 2016 elections, they were a zero factor in the elections.
Additionally, all the propaganda points that the NDC used to lean on, including the Dagbon ferment and ethnocentric politics, had died with the ‘death’ of John Mahama and the SADA scams, which have till date exposed to the party to ridicule and credibility gaps into future elections.
NewsDay’s checks also reveal that the risk of the NDC losing at least one more seat in Tamale is high, also in the light of the reduction in steam of the NDC evident in their nation-wide walloping, apart from the emerging influence of the NASARA Movement which is now becoming a fountain from which the NPP is tapping frontline constituency, regional and national executives. All these area aside of the evident signs of more rapid development taking place before the very eyes of ordinary people, with more constituents, particularly youth and youth associations, getting more interested in bread and butter issues than hollow propaganda.
Lion hides in his den
Again, the secret of the NDC’s clutch on the Kpone Katamanso constituency seat had a root in Jerry Rawlings personal relationship with the late Chief of Katamanso, who had tried hard, unlike most of the indigenous Ga chiefs, to preserve their lands. Under the late Chief, Katamanso as an indigenous Ga community, managed to maintain its uniqueness and its cultural and historical significance.
Over centuries, most royals and indigenes have lived and stayed and built houses around in growing the historical town. Those numbers have formed the bastion of NDC faithful till The Lion acceded power and failed to build it the way his late father did.
The June 4 Movement, NewsDay was told, started in Katamanso with the tacit blessing of the late Katamanso Chief, whose son is Nii Afotey Agbo, christened-the Lion, who picked that seat in 2008 and had since occupied it, garnering for an incumbent 30, 000 to that of a non-indigene, who picked an encouraging 27,000. In 2012, Afotey picked 33,000, whilst his NPP competitor picked 23,000.
The permutations since are that loyalists of The Lion, in switching camps to join the Joshua Alabi campaign as royal of Nungua, whose satellite community is Katamanso, may work to put a damper on The Lion’s bid to hold onto the seat in 2020, giving the NPP candidate, Tettey the chance to sail through to rob the NDC of the Kpone-Katamanso seat.
NPP infighting at Chiana-Paga
But for an unnecessary infighting that resulted in the NPP losing the Chiana-Paga seat in the Upper East, it would have been a ‘cool chop.’ The NPP candidate picked 11,000 losing to the NDC which picked 15,000, with an NPP candidate donning PPP colours to pick 5,000 votes. Our scouts on the ground insist that should the NPP manage the situation, the Chiana-Paga seat will become theirs comfortably.
NewsDay also picked discreet information pointing to an NPP grab of the seat on account of several initiatives lined up on the stretch as part of regional integration projects that are likely to create more businesses in the hub to change the terrain into an industrial zone and NPP in diminishing the drudgery that force people into swallowing unhealthy propaganda.
In the Bawku Central, Mahama Ayariga won by less than 2000 votes, garnering 22,611, while the NPP picked 21,104. Considering the fact that Ayariga was incumbent and also the history of the 2012 elections which the NPP comfortably won, but for a legal tussle, there is every indication that the NPP is more likely to pick the seat than the NDC would retain it. This is aside of the waning credibility of Ayariga as a Mahama loyalist and also pranks that he had been linked to in Parliament over his credibility.